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Businesses reported pressure on revenue while input prices stayed high

The Census revenue index is 41.9 and its current input-price index is 69.4 for data through September 6.

By Black Lentil Editorial

Checked September 20, 20263-minute readU.S. Census Bureau

Apply this to your situation

What this means for your business

Use this report when you are trying to understand a change in sales, costs or workload. It gives you questions to investigate; your own records show whether the same pressure is reaching your business.

If sales feel slower: Compare similar periods in your own records. Are there fewer purchases, smaller purchases or later payments? Check seasonality and changes to your prices or opening hours before attributing the change to the wider economy.
If costs and workload are rising: Compare supplier invoices, staffing hours and customer orders. Identify which change is reducing what you keep from a sale or delaying money coming in. Add the amounts and dates to your cash forecast before making a new commitment.

Keep in mind: A survey index is not a percentage change in your sales or costs. National results do not predict your next month or explain why your own results changed.

Review your business with the weekly owner sheet →

The U.S. Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) showed a current revenue index of 41.9 for data through September 6. The current input-price index was 69.4. An index below 50 means more businesses reported a decrease than an increase for that measure. An index above 50 means more reported an increase.

Together, the indexes suggest broad pressure: reported revenue leaned downward while reported input prices leaned upward. They do not say that every business experienced the same change or measure the size of an individual business's change.

The latest index values

The Census live data page reported:

current performance: 57.0;
current revenues: 41.9;
current employees: 47.9;
current hours: 46.6;
current input prices: 69.4;
expected performance in six months: 55.4;
expected demand in six months: 52.0;
expected input prices in six months: 77.0.

Current measures refer to the previous two weeks. Expectations refer to the next six months.

What 41.9 does and does not mean

The revenue index is a diffusion index. It summarizes the balance of businesses reporting increases and decreases. A reading of 41.9 does not mean revenue fell 8.1%, and it does not mean the average business retained 41.9% of revenue.

Likewise, an input-price index of 69.4 does not mean costs rose 69.4%. It means reports of price increases outweighed reports of decreases under the survey's index method.

That distinction should appear beside the number wherever Black Lentil uses it.

Who is represented

The survey covers employer businesses in the United States, excluding farms. Census says the sample includes about 1.2 million businesses divided into six panels, with each panel asked to report every 12 weeks. Results are released every two weeks.

This matters for interpretation. A solo business with no employees is not represented in the same way as an employer business. National results can also hide large differences by industry, place, and business size.

Census identifies BTOS as an experimental data product. Experimental products may not meet all of the agency's usual quality standards. The estimates are still useful when their population, period, and limits travel with them.

Compare the signal with the business

An owner can use the national signal to ask sharper questions:

Did unit sales, average transaction, or collected revenue change?
Which input prices changed on actual invoices?
Did staffing hours change because of demand, availability, or a deliberate decision?
Are customers buying less, paying later, or shifting products?
Does the 13-week cash forecast show the same pressure?

If the business is moving differently from the index, that difference can be more useful than agreement. It may reflect a local market, customer mix, contract, season, new location, price change, or operating problem.

What the survey does not prove

The survey does not diagnose a business, measure profit, or prescribe layoffs, price increases, borrowing, or expansion. It does not establish why an index moved. It provides a recent national signal that must be compared with the business's own evidence.

Sources

This briefing is general information. Survey estimates and the live data page can be revised or corrected.

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